Prioritization is hard. I use a lightweight framework to quickly prioritize what I work on and how I work on it, both at work and in everyday life. I find that applying this simple framework saves me time. I waste less time working on unimportant problems and the solutions I implement are more effective.

I first present this framework as a heuristic as it can be applied both quickly and mentally. I use the heuristic format more than the framework format.

Heuristic

Two leverage points dominate the impact of time spent solving problems.

1. Solve the right problem.
2. Solve the problem in the right way.

Three questions expose how important a problem is. Three more reveal the value of each possible solution.

Solve the Right Problem

1. Is it a big problem?
2. Will my contribution make a big difference? (i.e. It won’t get solved without me.)
3. Can I fix it?

Solve the Problem in the Right Way

1. Will this solution have a large impact compared to the next best solution?
2. Will I learn something valuable by applying this solution?
3. Am I confident in my previous estimates?

That’s it. Prioritize problems where you answered yes to the first three questions. Prioritize solutions where you answered yes to the second three. The stronger your “yes’s”, the higher the priority.

This heuristic format is easy to remember and quick to apply. For bigger problems, applying the framework formally can be helpful. I discuss the framework in detail below.

Problem Importance

First, break your problem down into three pieces. Scale, neglectedness, and tractability (taken from Effective Altruism).

Scale (Is it a big problem?)

Small problems are less important than big ones. If this problem doesn’t get solved, what happens? Do you go bankrupt or will you have to pay a small fine? The former matters, the latter doesn’t.

Neglectedness (Will my contribution make a big difference?)

Problems that will be resolved automatically are not a priority. The same is true for problems that someone else will resolve. Spend your time working on problems that no one else will work on (or where you are capable of doing a much better job than others). That email your whole team is on? Not neglected, someone else will answer it. The project you’re leading? That’s a problem you should work on.

Tractability (Can I fix it?)

Difficult problems are a lower priority than easier problems because they take more time to solve. A hard problem crowds out time that could be spent on other, equally important problems. If you’re great with computers but bad with cars, it’s reasonable to spend time fixing your computer but you should just send your car to a mechanic. The inverse is also true, a mechanic can fix their car but should take their computer to a technician.

The best problems are large, ignored, and solvable. Prioritize problems that are high in these three traits, whether at work, home, volunteering, etc.

Intervention Value

Now that you are working on an important problem, solve it in an effective manner. Break potential solutions into three pieces: Marginal Impact, Knowledge Gained, and Estimate Confidence (adapted from here).

Marginal Impact (Will this solution have a large impact compared to the next best solution?)

The best solutions make a big difference to the problem. If your problem is that it takes too much time to get to work, a new route that saves you 10 seconds isn’t a very good one. A route that saves 20 minutes is great.

The best solutions are also effective. If your problem is a lack of time, sleeping less isn’t a good solution. You will become less effective and the problem will get worse, not better. Better prioritization is a good solution, dropping the least important tasks will save time for the most important tasks.

Knowledge Gained (Will I learn something valuable by applying this solution?)

Learning more about the problem or learning a new skill can be just as important as solving the problem. This is often the case when learning new skills. If you’re learning to cook, the problem you’re trying to solve is that you want to eat delicious food. Even if you fail, you will have learned something about cooking (and you can always just order takeout). Solutions where you learn more are better than solutions where you learn less.

Estimate Confidence (Am I confident in my previous estimates?)

All of the previous questions are estimates. Ideally, you are highly confident in your estimates. Sometimes we are very confident. A quick walk down a new route will tell you exactly how much faster it is. Projecting that a new career will have a larger impact, on the other hand, is very uncertain.

The best solutions are: much higher impact than the alternatives, teach us something valuable, and have certain outcomes.

Summary

The best use of this framework depends on the circumstances in which it is used.

• If you’re evaluating which chore to work on next, you can mentally run through the heuristic form in a few seconds.
• When selecting your next task at work, you might spend a few minutes and jot down some bullet points for each question.
• If you’re planning the next steps in your career, you should spend at least a few hours prioritizing the problems you want to work on.

I apply this framework in Why AI Safety is Important.